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Canada

St. Catharines


MP elect: Chris Bittle (LPC)

Latest projection: May 25, 2025
LPC likely

Candidates | St. Catharines


Liberal Chris Bittle*
Conservative Bas Sluijmers
NDP Karen Orlandi
PPC Dennis Wilson
Centrist Taha Alexander Haj-Ahmad
Independent Christopher Reilly

Candidates are listed on the Elections Canada website here. This list will be updated if it changes during the campaign.



St. Catharines 52% ± 6% LPC 40% ± 6% CPC 6% ± 2% NDP LPC 2025 52.0% 338Canada vote projection | May 25, 2025
This projection is calculated using a mostly-proportional swing model adjusted with provincial and regional polls conducted by professional pollsters. This is not a poll, but a projection based on polls. The 338Canada model also takes into account electoral history and other data. Read more on 338Canada's methodology here.
50% 100% St. Catharines 99% LPC 1% CPC <1% NDP Odds of winning | May 25, 2025
These odds of winning are those if a general election were held today. They are calculated by the 338Canada Monte Carlo-type program that runs thousands of general election simulations. Electoral districts are then labelled as safe (odds of winning higher than 99.9%), likely (90% to 99.9%), leaning (70% to 90%) or toss up (below 70%).
[▲▼: movement since previous update]

Popular vote projection | St. Catharines

LPC 52% ± 6% CPC 40% ± 6% NDP 6% ± 2% Popular vote projection % | St. Catharines 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC 45% LPC 24% NDP 23% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC 45% LPC 25% NDP 23% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC 44% LPC 26% NDP 22% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 42% LPC 29% NDP 21% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 41% LPC 32% NDP 20% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 40% LPC 36% NDP 17% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 39% LPC 38% NDP 15% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 40% CPC 38% NDP 14% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 39% CPC 39% NDP 15% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 41% CPC 38% NDP 14% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 44% CPC 37% NDP 12% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 44% CPC 36% NDP 12% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 45% CPC 36% NDP 12% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 45% CPC 36% NDP 12% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 45% CPC 36% NDP 12% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 45% CPC 36% NDP 12% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 47% CPC 36% NDP 10% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 47% CPC 36% NDP 10% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 48% CPC 36% NDP 10% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 49% CPC 36% NDP 10% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 49% CPC 36% NDP 9% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 50% CPC 36% NDP 9% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 49% CPC 37% NDP 9% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 50% CPC 37% NDP 8% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 51% CPC 36% NDP 8% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 52% CPC 36% NDP 8% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 52% CPC 36% NDP 8% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC 52% CPC 36% NDP 8% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC 52% CPC 36% NDP 8% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 52% CPC 36% NDP 8% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 52% CPC 36% NDP 8% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 52% CPC 35% NDP 8% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC 52% CPC 35% NDP 8% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC 51% CPC 35% NDP 8% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC 52% CPC 34% NDP 8% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC 52% CPC 34% NDP 8% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC 52% CPC 34% NDP 8% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC 53% CPC 35% NDP 8% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC 53% CPC 35% NDP 8% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC 52% CPC 35% NDP 8% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 52% CPC 36% NDP 8% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 52% CPC 36% NDP 8% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 52% CPC 36% NDP 8% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC 52% CPC 35% NDP 8% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC 53% CPC 35% NDP 8% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC 53% CPC 35% NDP 8% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC 53% CPC 35% NDP 8% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC 53% CPC 35% NDP 8% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC 53% CPC 35% NDP 9% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC 52% CPC 35% NDP 8% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 50% CPC 36% NDP 10% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC 52% CPC 40% NDP 6% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC 52% CPC 40% NDP 6% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 52% CPC 40% NDP 6% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 52% CPC 40% NDP 6% 2025-05-25 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Odds of winning | St. Catharines

LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% Odds of winning the most seats 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2025► 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 2025-05-01 2025-06-01 2025-07-01 Election 2025 LPC CPC NDP May 25, 2025 2025-01-12 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-12 2025-01-19 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-19 2025-01-26 CPC >99% LPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-01-26 2025-02-02 CPC 99% LPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-02-02 2025-02-09 CPC 93% LPC 7% NDP <1% 2025-02-09 2025-02-16 CPC 76% LPC 24% NDP <1% 2025-02-16 2025-02-23 CPC 54% LPC 46% NDP <1% 2025-02-23 2025-03-02 LPC 60% CPC 40% NDP <1% 2025-03-02 2025-03-09 LPC 50% CPC 50% NDP <1% 2025-03-09 2025-03-16 LPC 68% CPC 32% NDP <1% 2025-03-16 2025-03-18 LPC 87% CPC 13% NDP <1% 2025-03-18 2025-03-20 LPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-03-20 2025-03-21 LPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-03-21 2025-03-22 LPC 91% CPC 9% NDP <1% 2025-03-22 2025-03-23 LPC 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-03-23 2025-03-24 LPC 92% CPC 8% NDP <1% 2025-03-24 2025-03-25 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-25 2025-03-26 LPC 96% CPC 4% NDP <1% 2025-03-26 2025-03-27 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-27 2025-03-28 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-28 2025-03-29 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-29 2025-03-30 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-30 2025-03-31 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-03-31 2025-04-01 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-01 2025-04-02 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-02 2025-04-03 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-03 2025-04-04 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-04 2025-04-05 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-05 2025-04-06 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-06 2025-04-07 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-07 2025-04-08 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-08 2025-04-09 LPC 100% CPC 0% NDP <1% 2025-04-09 2025-04-10 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-10 2025-04-11 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-11 2025-04-12 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-12 2025-04-13 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-13 2025-04-14 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-14 2025-04-15 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-15 2025-04-16 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-16 2025-04-17 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-17 2025-04-18 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-18 2025-04-19 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-19 2025-04-20 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-04-20 2025-04-21 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-21 2025-04-22 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-22 2025-04-23 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-23 2025-04-24 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-24 2025-04-25 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-25 2025-04-26 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-26 2025-04-27 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-27 2025-04-28 LPC 98% CPC 2% NDP <1% 2025-04-28 2025-04-30 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-04-30 2025-05-11 LPC >99% CPC <1% NDP <1% 2025-05-11 2025-05-18 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-05-18 2025-05-25 LPC 99% CPC 1% NDP <1% 2025-05-25 Trudeau resigns Carney LPC leader

Recent electoral history | St. Catharines



2019 2021 2025 Proj. LPC 52% ± 6% 40.2% 37.9% 52.0% CPC 40% ± 6% 31.4% 32.4% 40.4% NDP 6% ± 2% 20.9% 21.3% 6.0% PPC 1% ± 1% 1.4% 6.6% 0.8% IND 1% ± 1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% GPC 0% ± 0% 6.1% 1.9% 0.0%
Data from 2019 and 2021 are those transposed onto new electoral map.
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